Rivian (RIVN) will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the market closes. Though the EV maker aggressively reduce prices final yr, a provide scarcity derailed some momentum. Rivian nonetheless stands by its objective of attaining its first optimistic gross revenue in This autumn. Right here’s what to anticipate from the report.
Rivian expects a optimistic gross revenue in This autumn 2024 earnings
Rivian beat expectations with 14,183 automobiles delivered within the remaining three months of 2024, bringing the annual complete to 51,579.
Though it was sufficient for Rivian to fulfill its full-year steerage of fifty,500 and 52,000, it was solely barely greater than the 50,122 the corporate delivered in 2023.
After a provide scarcity started within the third quarter, Rivian reduce its full-year manufacturing goal to 47,000 to 49,000 automobiles in 2024, down from 57,000. Rivian topped its (revised) goal with 49,476 models produced at its Regular, IL plant final yr.
Rivian’s deliveries and manufacturing embrace the R1S, R1T, and electrical supply and business vans. Regardless of the slower-than-expected development final yr, the corporate nonetheless expects earnings to enhance.
Final month, the EV maker confirmed that “The beforehand mentioned scarcity of a shared part on the R1 and RCV platforms is now not a constraint” on manufacturing.
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | This autumn 2024 | Full-12 months 2024 | 2024 steerage | |
| Deliveries | 13,588 | 13,790 | 10,018 | 14,183 | 51,579 | 50,500 – 52,000 |
| Manufacturing | 13,980 | 9,612 | 13,157 | 12,727 | 49,476 | 47,000 – 49,000 |
Rivian additionally mentioned it’s nonetheless on observe to submit its first optimistic gross revenue in This autumn. CFO Claire McDonough informed analysts on the corporate’s third-quarter earnings name that Rivian expects “a modest gross revenue” within the remaining three months of 2024.
Nonetheless, McDonough clarified that regulatory credit score gross sales, decrease prices because of plant upgrades and improved provide contracts, and different income exterior car gross sales would primarily drive the achievement.
| Q3 ’22 | This autumn ’22 | Q1 ’23 | Q2 ’23 | Q3 ’23 | This autumn ’23 | Q1 ’24 | Q2 ’24 | Q3 ’24 | |
| Rivian loss per car | $139,277 | $124,162 | $67,329 | $32,594 | $30,500 | $43,372 | $38,784 | $32,705 | $39,130 |
Rivian’s internet loss fell to $1.1 billion within the third quarter, with a gross revenue lack of $392 million. Though the corporate misplaced round $39,000 on every car delivered within the third quarter, this can be a drastic enchancment from 2022, when Rivian misplaced over $139,000 per unit.
Together with a $1 billion convertible word from Volkswagen, Rivian ended the third quarter with $6.7 billion in money and equivalents.
In keeping with Estimize, Wall St expects Rivian to submit This autumn income of $1.4 billion, up from $1.3 billion in This autumn 2023, and a lack of 0.68 per share (EPS) in comparison with a lack of $1.36 per share.
Prepping for R2
After launching its new three way partnership with VW, Scaringe mentioned the partnership was a “significant monetary alternative” price as much as $5.8 billion.
In keeping with Rivian’s Chief Software program Officer, Wassym Bensaid, different OEMs at the moment are “knocking on our door” about comparable provide offers for EV tech and software program.
Rivian’s greatest development driver remains to be but to come back. The corporate is making ready to launch its mid-size electrical SUV, the R2, early subsequent yr. It would initially be constructed at Rivian’s Regular, IL facility, however manufacturing is predicted to considerably increase with plans to open a second plant in Georgia.
The R2 will begin at round $45,000, or practically half the price of the present R1T ($71,700) and R1S ($77,700). Rivian will even construct a smaller, extra reasonably priced R3 crossover and high-performance R3X on the Georgia facility.
Rivian plans to construct the plant in two phases, every including 200,000 models of annual manufacturing capability. Rivian says the R2 and R3 are “vital drivers within the firm’s long-term development and profitability.”
Though Rivian secured a $6.6 billion federal mortgage for the brand new EV plant simply earlier than Trump took workplace, the funding is now in jeopardy after the Administration introduced plans to freeze federal loans.
Georgia Gov Brian Kemp informed Channel 2 information this week that Rivian “secured that mortgage on the tail finish of the Biden administration and, you already know, I believe there’s no secret that the Trump administration is looking in any respect these issues.” He added, “So I don’t actually know the place that stands proper now.”
Rivian is assured the funds can be there subsequent yr once they go to attract them. A spokesperson mentioned, “We’re working onerous to onshore US manufacturing, offering hundreds of American jobs right here in Georgia.”
Rivian’s inventory is up since reporting third-quarter earnings in November. Nonetheless, RIVN shares are nonetheless down 12% over the previous 12 months and 90% from their all-time excessive shortly after going public in November 2021.
Test again tomorrow after the market closes for a full breakdown of Rivian’s This autumn 2024 earnings report.
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