what can we count on from the following Method 1 World Championship?

December 16, 2024

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The engines have turned off. The 2024 Method 1 season, the longest within the historical past of this motorsport self-discipline with 24 occasions over 10 months, concluded final weekend with the ultimate occasion of the season in Abu Dhabi and a post-season testing session on the 5.281-kilometre Yas Marina Circuit on Yas Island.

The just-concluded Method 1 championship was one of the vital aggressive in latest many years, actually within the so-called turbo-hybrid period, which began with Mercedes’ dominance in 2014, adopted by Pink Bull and Max Verstappen’s dominance.

Turning our backs on the latest previous, the eight consecutive constructors’ titles gained by the Mercedes crew till 2021 won’t be remembered as among the many best in Method 1 historical past. Mercedes primarily had no rivals, besides maybe within the remaining yr when the drivers’ championship went to Max Verstappen in 2021. The identical could be mentioned for the 2022 and 2023 Method 1 seasons, which, due to the change in laws, noticed the dominance of the Austrian crew.

The just lately concluded season, nevertheless, noticed an actual battle between a number of contenders, each on the drivers’ entrance however much more so on the constructors’ facet. Lando Norris tried to “disturb” Max Verstappen within the race for his fourth Method 1 world title, whereas Ferrari and McLaren succeeded, within the not simple or predictable achievement in bridging the hole that Pink Bull had accrued within the first a part of the season and ultimately surpassing the reigning world champions. The ultimate hole between McLaren, which ended the championship with 666 factors, and Ferrari, who scored 652, was simply 14 factors on the finish the Abu Dhabi race.

Fourteen factors out of 24 Grand Prix means lower than one level per race, and contemplating the six dash races that awarded factors, lower than half some extent per occasion. If we wish to quantify it in a different way, 14 factors is a 3rd place, or a 4th and a ninth place extra, or a fifth and an eighth place extra, and so forth.

Wanting on the information from the final 10 years, it may be seen that the typical factors distinction between the successful crew of the constructors’ championship and the second-place crew is over 200 factors, 208 to be exact. The very best peak was final yr, with Pink Bull outscoring Mercedes by a staggering 451 factors, whereas the smallest hole, after this yr’s, was in 2021 with an in depth 28-point hole between Mercedes in P1 and Pink Bull in P2.

With these issues in thoughts, the main target now turns to subsequent yr. The 2025 Method 1 season will characteristic a really steady technical and sporting regulation that ought to guarantee additional tightening of the on-track competitors.

The world champion crew, given the fixed development all through the just lately concluded season, ought to be capable of simply stay among the many high spots within the standings. Stability within the driver lineup might then assist McLaren preserve extra continuity. Ferrari, the second drive this yr, can depend on the emotional enhance tied to the arrival of Lewis Hamilton and the truth that, beneath crew principal Frederic Vasseur’s management, they’ve discovered a growth continuity that had at all times been lacking in earlier years.

For Pink Bull, there are two uncertainties: on one hand, the motive force pairing, whether or not they determine to proceed with Sergio Perez or swap to Liam Lawson, won’t be on paper on the similar stage as McLaren’s and Ferrari’s driver pairs. Moreover, from a technical standpoint, the lack of Adrian Newey and the “misplaced path” within the 2024 developments could possibly be one other essential level waiting for 2025.

Mercedes deserves a separate chapter. The technical disaster is deep and lasting. The difficulties in understanding the automotive and the proper path for developments might resurface subsequent yr. Just like Pink Bull, the arrival of a really younger driver could possibly be a essential level when in comparison with this yr’s high two groups and their driver pairings.

For the 2025 Method 1 constructors’ championship title, we don’t see how another crew might break in, given the outcomes of this yr and likewise contemplating the motive force lineup, which is actually not on par—with all due respect—with that of McLaren and Ferrari.

Due to this fact, it seems to be like a two-way battle for the constructors’ title between McLaren and Ferrari. It’s doubtless however not sure, given what Method 1 teaches us, particularly this yr. In the event you keep in mind, after the primary 4 races this yr, the championship appeared already determined in Pink Bull’s favor. As everyone knows, issues turned out in a different way. It also needs to be added that in 2025, developments throughout the yr will probably be “conditioned” by the 2026 venture, which can characteristic a serious regulation change, so a part of the season should be “sacrificed” to keep away from arriving unprepared for the next one.

For now, our F1 prediction, with the engines of the 2024 Method 1 World Championship simply turned off, predicts McLaren and Ferrari will nonetheless be forward of Pink Bull and Mercedes.